It’s been 16 years since the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers met in the postseason, and it feels long overdue for two of the National League’s recent powers. This National League Division Series will feature two of the sport’s highest payrolls and stars galore. One of these teams will go home earlier than anyone expected.
That is the cruel reality these juggernauts face as they prepare for a five-game series. The Phillies were in Los Angeles last month and partied in the visitors’ clubhouse at Dodger Stadium to celebrate a division title. They are 9-3 against the Dodgers since the beginning of the 2024 season. They have, generally, made Shohei Ohtani mortal at the plate.
However, that was the regular season.
Last month, in that three-game series, Dodgers hitters took comfortable swings against the three Phillies lefty starters who are expected to pitch in this NLDS. The Phillies did not score a single run against L.A. starters — Ohtani, Blake Snell and Emmet Sheehan. Much of the prep work on both sides over the next 48 hours will begin there.
Phillies in five
In a well-matched series, it’s tempting to pick the defending champions coming off a definitive Wild Card win. The Dodgers looked good. However, their bullpen issues did show a bit, and the Phillies have an advantage there, if only because they know who their closer is. In every other facet of the game, these two teams are right there with each other. In an era where the bullpen pitches half (or more!) of the innings in the playoffs, that one bigger edge could be huge.
Biggest strength: The Phillies are expected to use a rotation of three lefties. It’s an unusual arrangement, but Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo and Ranger Suárez have held righty hitters to under a .700 OPS this season. They might all be left-handed, but they have different styles.
Biggest weakness: The Phillies know they have Jhoan Duran at the end, and it would not be surprising to see them lean on him for multi-inning saves. Getting the ball to Duran might be an adventure. David Robertson and Matt Strahm are the setup men, although neither is the prototypical hard-throwing reliever. What happens in the middle of games?
Biggest strength: It’s a starting rotation that doesn’t appear to be dinged whatsoever from the Wild Card Series, despite the disadvantage those games are supposed to create for advancing teams. The Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani lined up to start Game 1 on Saturday night, with Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on regular rest for Games 2 and 3, and Tyler Glasnow is still looming for a possible Game 4. Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw are both options in case the Dodgers need to break glass for further starting depth.
Biggest weakness: What happens whenever the Dodgers’ starters leave the game? They were able to leverage some of their extra starters in relief during the shortened Wild Card Series in hopes of beefing up their bullpen. That didn’t work. Glasnow didn’t pitch, and Sheehan only managed to record one out when asked to pitch in a six-run game in the eighth inning of Wednesday’s clincher. Roki Sasaki, who closed out the series, was a long shot to be on the postseason roster just a month ago. So much is in flux for this struggling group.
Key matchups
Phillies hitters against Dodgers splitters: Only two teams in baseball threw more splitters than the 1,707 the Dodgers threw in 2025, and two of the starters the team will count on this series (Ohtani, Yamamoto), along with one of their potential top relievers (Sasaki), rely on it as much as anyone on the roster right now. For Yamamoto and Sasaki in particular, it’s a lethal putaway pitch. The Phillies appear to have handled splitters fine this season, ranking sixth in weighted on-base average (.287) against splitters this season.
Both teams versus lefty fastballs: The Phillies ranked second with a .486 slugging percentage against fastballs from left-handers. The Dodgers ranked fourth with a .469 mark. Both of these teams are littered with lefty-hitting stars, but they’re also some of the best left-on-left hitters in the entire sport. The Phillies have a lefty-filled rotation. The Dodgers have a deep disposal of lefty relievers to deploy. Just don’t miss with a fastball.
Matt Strahm versus Dodgers top lefty batters: Over the last two regular seasons, Strahm has faced the Dodgers seven times and allowed only four of the 23 batters he’s faced to reach base. Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy are a combined 1 for 7 with a single against Strahm. He’s had reverse splits for the last two seasons, but the Phillies will want Strahm on Ohtani and Freeman late in as many games as possible. They’ll take the potential Strahm versus Mookie Betts at-bat with it.
In many series, these edges are definitive, and it’s evident that one team has an advantage over the other.
The Phillies had the best regular-season starting rotation, but then they lost Zack Wheeler, and the Dodgers (fourth by fWAR) saw their injured pitchers return to the lineup.
The bullpen goes to the Phillies, but the Dodgers will try to mitigate that disadvantage with some of their extra starters. Statcast defensive numbers place them both in the middle of the pack.
Their hitters’ strikeout rates for the season were almost identical, and the tie had to be broken by the Phillies’ superior in-zone contact rate. It almost seems like these teams were built to battle each other specifically.
Phillies top performers
Matt’s X-factor, 1B Bryce Harper: Harper had a pedestrian season by his standards; his .487 slugging percentage was his lowest in a season since 2016. However, he’s thrived in October before. Harper has hit .325/.444/.709 over the last three postseasons with the Phillies. The Phillies didn’t need Harper at his best during the regular season, but the postseason is different.
Fabian’s X-factor, SS Mookie Betts: Teams don’t want Ohtani to beat them. It’s hard to argue with the logic. That puts the onus on the man hitting behind him, who struggled so much all season that he declared his season over and then took off after that. Betts has looked like himself for more than a month now, including four hits in the Wild Card Series clincher over Cincinnati.
